WI: Nicaean Empire embraces gunpowder early

[RogueTraderEnthusiast]

I'm curious as to what the impacts of a very early-adopter Nicaean Empire may have looked like.

So William of Rubruck is meant to have travelelled throught the Nicaean Empire on his way home. What if he'd enabled (either by mentioning it in passing, or otherwise) the Nicaeans to know to try and harness it? Could they have used it earlier in hand cannons? Could they have imported the knowledge from the Mongols, and later form a "Moscow" style arrangement with them?

 

[RogueTraderEnthusiast]

Anyone?

 

[Faeelin]

Are we sure he's the first person to use gunpowder? That it came from East Asia to Western Europe, skipping over the lands in between?

 

[TheCataphract]

It's a neat idea, though I don't know enough about early gunpowder weapons to say for sure what would happen. It seems to me that it's most decisive early use would be in smaller guns mounted on naval vessels. If used well it could be a massive advantage for them against the interest of Venice and Genoa, perhaps allowing them to curb their influence in the Aegean and Black seas and thus improving their own income.

Initially though, I doubt they'd have the money for the large siege cannons. That might have to come later.

 

[ManintheField]

Initially though, I doubt they'd have the money for the large siege cannons. That might have to come later.

They might. Western Asia Minor was the part of the Empire that remained very rich and well developed longer than the rest. In the early-middle 13th century is exactly when that area was probably reaching its peak of development, prior to the decline under Palaiologoi neglect in the later part of the century and the disasters of the 14th.

 

[Deleted member 67076]

If he did then its an immense boon to the Nicaeans. For one, it means much better anti cavalry methods against light cavalry. For two, noble private armies aren't going to have it, meaning the government is going to have a near monopoly on gunpowder and gunpowder weaponry. This encourages the usage of cheap infantry units rather than expensive mercenaries or noble based heavy cavalry and their dependents. Therefore policy will continue the Lascarid trends of native Greek soldiers that are rewarded by land.

In short, this creates a mini military revolution similar to that of France where even if Michael VIII launches his coup, the aristocratization tendencies of the Palaiologoi will be curbed by the rising costs of warfare and the need to provide land to soldiers. I'd expect more conquests in Asia (as it would be easier to fight against light calvary) and a larger amount of fortifications built to repel the Turks, while in turn the Ghazis and Turcomen hit the brick wall of the Greek infantry.

 

[RogueTraderEnthusiast]

Are we sure he's the first person to use gunpowder? That it came from East Asia to Western Europe, skipping over the lands in between?

As far as I know, yes. At least knowledgeable of it in Europe.

It's a neat idea, though I don't know enough about early gunpowder weapons to say for sure what would happen. It seems to me that it's most decisive early use would be in smaller guns mounted on naval vessels. If used well it could be a massive advantage for them against the interest of Venice and Genoa, perhaps allowing them to curb their influence in the Aegean and Black seas and thus improving their own income.

Initially though, I doubt they'd have the money for the large siege cannons. That might have to come later.

I've read enough to think that that might be a later development, rather than initial. Mainly because you need to master Empy's First Boomstick before upgrading to Empy's BIG boomstick.

They might. Western Asia Minor was the part of the Empire that remained very rich and well developed longer than the rest. In the early-middle 13th century is exactly when that area was probably reaching its peak of development, prior to the decline under Palaiologoi neglect in the later part of the century and the disasters of the 14th.

Interesting, if what Sov says below holds true, then there may be less neglect, and more security, leaving the region capable of being the long-term beating heart of the Empire. (Outside of Constantinople itself?)

If he did then its an immense boon to the Nicaeans. For one, it means much better anti cavalry methods against light cavalry. For two, noble private armies aren't going to have it, meaning the government is going to have a near monopoly on gunpowder and gunpowder weaponry. This encourages the usage of cheap infantry units rather than expensive mercenaries or noble based heavy cavalry and their dependents. Therefore policy will continue the Lascarid trends of native Greek soldiers that are rewarded by land.

In short, this creates a mini military revolution similar to that of France where even if Michael VIII launches his coup, the aristocratization tendencies of the Palaiologoi will be curbed by the rising costs of warfare and the need to provide land to soldiers. I'd expect more conquests in Asia (as it would be easier to fight against light calvary) and a larger amount of fortifications built to repel the Turks, while in turn the Ghazis and Turcomen hit the brick wall of the Greek infantry.

Anti-Light Cavalry? You might have to explain that one to me.

#GoLascaridGreekArmies

I wonder, if the Lascarids hold the throne (by virtue of their state army stopping the coup), do you think they'd focus more on securing Anatolia over Constantinople? Constantinople is important, but I can't help but think they'd be inclined towards securing more land than the prestige a usurper like Michael VIII, and Anatolia fits that bill.

Then again, to provide my own counter - would they be interested in securing parts of Europe, depending on what would be the easier fight. Hmmm.

 

[Deleted member 67076]

Anti-Light Cavalry? You might have to explain that one to me.

Oh basically guns makes it much easier to beat back cavalry armies because the noises spook the horses ruining cohesion and if the horses get shot, well then the rider is out. Combine with Hussite War wagons and neither charges nor spamming aren't going to go well.

I wonder, if the Lascarids hold the throne (by virtue of their state army stopping the coup), do you think they'd focus more on securing Anatolia over Constantinople? Constantinople is important, but I can't help but think they'd be inclined towards securing more land than the prestige a usurper like Michael VIII, and Anatolia fits that bill.

Yes; absolutely. Michael VIII was obsessed with taking Greece while the Lascarids didn't seem to show much interest in that (they preferred to ally with Bulgaria and the like for the moment) while focusing on Anatolia.

 

[Byz]

I've had a TL idea for a while that the Byzantines gain gunpowder in the 11th-12th century, create an insane gunpowder empire, then face the Mongols in mortal combat. The whole TL would be half-satiric and it would be portrayed as a sort of blood dome. Oh, and it wouldn't be Mongols v Romans, it would be MONGOLS VS ROMANS. Haven't gotten around to it yet, though.

Back to the OP, it depends on how quickly they get around to using gunpowder, but there's certainly the potential for them to create small cannons, especially for naval combat. I don't think it creates an Age of Miracles, but it might be enough on an edge for the Byzantines to keep the Turks out of Western Anatolia. If they can do that while reclaiming Constantinople and Greece, they have an Empire that's not much weaker than the one the Byzantines had in the 12th century- still vulnerable, but hardly on death's door.

 

[trajen777]

So i would look at this way --- in William of Rubruck's book he references running across Nicean ambassadors in his travel. So lets look at it this way :

By 1200 ad there are many examples of gunpowder being used all over China in offensive and defensive operations. So looking at it you could create a TL like :
1. Nicean monks and ambassadors are sent east (think Justinian and the monks smuggling back the silk worms), in 1225
2. They smuggle back the formula for gun powder (written first in 1030), with powder sample, one hand gun, one bomb.
3. They arrives back in 1245. The eastern part of the empire has few enemies except for weak Turkish tribes, after the Mongols destroy the Seljuk in 1245.
4. Michael VIII begins reconquest and has built a force with grenades, bombs, ships with gun powder weapons fired from Ballista and catapult.
5 Constantinople conquered like in real world. The field forces armed with Grenades, powder arrows, hand cannon, and ballista and catapult bombs defeat Bulgarian, Serbian, and Sicilian forces. City walls and forts are overcome by bomb fire.
6. IN 1263 the invasion of Greece succeeded (in real time his army of 15,000 was surprised by the Latins and fled - here he wins with a unit of hand cannons which destroy the Latin cav)
7. Michael's fleet with the advantage of gun powder defeat all before it and gain control of the Greek islands and the trade with the black sea and Egypt brings in much needed capital. With a strong fleet in the Adriatic sea they are able to keep any westerners from invading.
8. With peace in the west and the Balkans, Michael is able to focus on the next 15 years in systematic conquest in the East. As the Mongols retreat he picks off each sultanate one by one. The use of roaming cav, and gun powder fire power against Turkish towns shows that the Turks have no safe hiding place.
9. In 1281 the Sicilian vespers neuters his main western enemy.
10. Not having to campaign in 1282 in Albania while sick he stays in Constantinople and lives for another 5 years (age 66)
11. By 1295 Anatolia is recaptured completely, the population is increasing, trade is flourishing, gun powder weapons are becoming better to fight cav in the East as well as the hand cannon are becoming larger to better break castles. Above all the fleet is large and accommodates fire power.

Below evolution : 1200 -- 1200 -- 1400s -- 1450's https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_gunpowder

 

[catconqueror]

Is early gunpowder that effective? I thought they are unreliable and prone to explode. Afterall there's a reason why guns did not dominate warfare till another 300 years.

 

[RogueTraderEnthusiast]

Oh basically guns makes it much easier to beat back cavalry armies because the noises spook the horses ruining cohesion and if the horses get shot, well then the rider is out. Combine with Hussite War wagons and neither charges nor spamming aren't going to go well.

Yes; absolutely. Michael VIII was obsessed with taking Greece while the Lascarids didn't seem to show much interest in that (they preferred to ally with Bulgaria and the like for the moment) while focusing on Anatolia.

Roman War Wagons would be a sight to see, assuming they could keep their own horses calm without others figuring it out. Done well, surely that would halt standard ranged cavalry tactics in their tracks?

Hmm. Brilliant.

I've had a TL idea for a while that the Byzantines gain gunpowder in the 11th-12th century, create an insane gunpowder empire, then face the Mongols in mortal combat. The whole TL would be half-satiric and it would be portrayed as a sort of blood dome. Oh, and it wouldn't be Mongols v Romans, it would be MONGOLS VS ROMANS. Haven't gotten around to it yet, though.

Back to the OP, it depends on how quickly they get around to using gunpowder, but there's certainly the potential for them to create small cannons, especially for naval combat. I don't think it creates an Age of Miracles, but it might be enough on an edge for the Byzantines to keep the Turks out of Western Anatolia. If they can do that while reclaiming Constantinople and Greece, they have an Empire that's not much weaker than the one the Byzantines had in the 12th century- still vulnerable, but hardly on death's door.

MONGOLS VS ROMANS - $300.

Interesting. Naval power would be useful, but it'd be limited to the Black Sea at first I imagine - unless the Nicaeans do what the Ottomans did IOTL and build forts to shoot at ships. (Would they be able to achieve the range?) Hmm

So i would look at this way --- in William of Rubruck's book he references running across Nicean ambassadors in his travel. So lets look at it this way :

By 1200 ad there are many examples of gunpowder being used all over China in offensive and defensive operations. So looking at it you could create a TL like :
1. Nicean monks and ambassadors are sent east (think Justinian and the monks smuggling back the silk worms), in 1225
2. They smuggle back the formula for gun powder (written first in 1030), with powder sample, one hand gun, one bomb.
3. They arrives back in 1245. The eastern part of the empire has few enemies except for weak Turkish tribes, after the Mongols destroy the Seljuk in 1245.
4. Michael VIII begins reconquest and has built a force with grenades, bombs, ships with gun powder weapons fired from Ballista and catapult.
5 Constantinople conquered like in real world. The field forces armed with Grenades, powder arrows, hand cannon, and ballista and catapult bombs defeat Bulgarian, Serbian, and Sicilian forces. City walls and forts are overcome by bomb fire.
6. IN 1263 the invasion of Greece succeeded (in real time his army of 15,000 was surprised by the Latins and fled - here he wins with a unit of hand cannons which destroy the Latin cav)
7. Michael's fleet with the advantage of gun powder defeat all before it and gain control of the Greek islands and the trade with the black sea and Egypt brings in much needed capital. With a strong fleet in the Adriatic sea they are able to keep any westerners from invading.
8. With peace in the west and the Balkans, Michael is able to focus on the next 15 years in systematic conquest in the East. As the Mongols retreat he picks off each sultanate one by one. The use of roaming cav, and gun powder fire power against Turkish towns shows that the Turks have no safe hiding place.
9. In 1281 the Sicilian vespers neuters his main western enemy.
10. Not having to campaign in 1282 in Albania while sick he stays in Constantinople and lives for another 5 years (age 66)
11. By 1295 Anatolia is recaptured completely, the population is increasing, trade is flourishing, gun powder weapons are becoming better to fight cav in the East as well as the hand cannon are becoming larger to better break castles. Above all the fleet is large and accommodates fire power.

Below evolution : 1200 -- 1200 -- 1400s -- 1450's https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_gunpowder

That sounds like a lot of fun

 

[trajen777]

Is early gunpowder that effective? I thought they are unreliable and prone to explode. Afterall there's a reason why guns did not dominate warfare till another 300 years.

Reading in the mongol and china wars it was very important in siege warfare, grenades, and ship conflict. As to early guns the advantage is untrained or poorly trained troops could clump together and provide massive firepower.

So byz with themes could attack the various forts controlled by latins etc and win often. On ships gun powder would negate the itialian seamanship advantages. These victories would allow for an easier reconquests of the Latin areas, have a protected Adriatic from invasion, and allow peaceful economic growth while they forced on reconquests of the shattered Turks of the east.

 

[RogueTraderEnthusiast]

Reading in the mongol and china wars it was very important in siege warfare, grenades, and ship conflict. As to early guns the advantage is untrained or poorly trained troops could clump together and provide massive firepower.

So byz with themes could attack the various forts controlled by latins etc and win often. On ships gun powder would negate the itialian seamanship advantages. These victories would allow for an easier reconquests of the Latin areas, have a protected Adriatic from invasion, and allow peaceful economic growth while they forced on reconquests of the shattered Turks of the east.

Was that meant to be Adriatic or Aegean?

 

[trajen777]

Was that meant to be Adriatic or Aegean?

Adriatic -- i wold see the conquests of the remainder of the latin kingdoms in Greece. The gun ships of the Byz would then deploy a fleet in the Adriatic to make sure the Sicilians and westerners did not have invasion routes. An alliance with Hungary, and defeat of various Serbian states (protectorate) would protect the west and the north. After these were established then you would have farm and trade growth in the Balkans. The control of the Adriatic and the Aegean would then make all of this are increasingly profitable (no raids, peace) and control of the Egyptian and black sea trade routes.

This additional revenue (peaceful and growing farms) and control of the trade routes would increase revenue each year and would decrease the revenue of the Italian states. Over time the trade between the Byz empire (Nicean gone after conquest of Const and becomes the Byz) and the Italian states might create a peaceful partnership. This revenue increase would help with the conquest of the Anatolia. This butterfly's the Ottomans (who's early adaption of gun powder allowed them to conquer the east)