WI: Maria Theresa of Austria married Charles III of Spain?

[CalBear]

The effects of this alternate betrothal would have significant consequences, particularly in Italy. With Carlos still engaged to Maria Theresa and potentially being groomed to become the next Holy Roman Emperor, tensions would arise in European diplomacy. Charles VI's ambitions in Italy, coupled with the prospect of Tuscany and Parma falling under an expanded Austrian influence, would provoke objections from other European powers. The fear of an overwhelming Austrian presence would likely prompt opposing powers to seek alternatives to maintain the balance of power and prevent total Austrian control in the region. One possible solution would be to swap Carlos with his younger brother, Felipe, as the heir to Tuscany. Alternatively, an unpopular idea of Gian Gastone being succeeded by his sister, Anna Maria Luisa, at an advanced age and without children might be considered as a temporary solution.

Furthermore, the alignment of Spain with Austria would have far-reaching effects on conflicts and diplomatic relations in the 1730s and 1740s. The solid Austro-Spanish alliance would impact other major powers and potentially hinder reconciliation attempts between the French and Spanish branches of the Bourbons. As a result, the duration and nature of alliances like the Anglo-Austrian alliance and the Anglo-French alliance would be subject to change. The fear of a revived Habsburg encirclement might prompt French and British politicians to prioritize maintaining good relations with each other. Conflicts such as the War of the Polish Succession and the War of the Austrian Succession would likely witness different alliance lineups and play out with distinct dynamics.

Overall, if the betrothal between Carlos III and Maria Theresa were to hold in this alternative scenario, it would reshape the political landscape of Europe, particularly in Italy, and lead to significant shifts in alliances, diplomacy, and the balance of power among the major European powers.


What if Louis XV of France married Anne/Amelia of Great Britain? It's an interesting possibility for this alternate 16th-century world. The alliance between France and Great Britain through this marriage could have had significant consequences. It might have influenced the balance of power in Europe and shaped the course of history. This union could have brought these two nations closer together, despite their historical differences and conflicts. Exploring this hypothetical scenario opens up a world of intriguing possibilities for the future.

This reads very much like it was generated by an AI app.

Please note that AI generated text/comments are not permitted here.

 

[Historymaster]

As I pointed out, unlike François Étienne, Carlos owns no territory inside the empire (Tuscany was disregarded for François, I see no reason why it would be deemed sufficient for Carlos) which is rather a basic requirement of being elected.

Tuscany was not disregarded for Francesco Stefano.

 

[unprincipled peter]

It requires of Infante Luis to live for it to be a reality.

Do we still have Philip V abdicating? Is Louis I living the POD?

I do think it makes a good one. A living Louis I, with an abdicated Philip V, very likely butterflies the OTL Anglo-Spanish War of late 20s and the Austrian alliance made for the purposes of waging the war. It offers a good opportunity for heirs. The primary effect is to completely alter Spanish history (instead of Philip and his overbearing wife, we have Louis and his whacko wife, with the direction of the empire going in a different direction), but it could also trigger a very different European history, including the Carlos III union with MT, which says a continued Austrian/Spanish friendship/alliance.

WoPS and WoAS are massively altered. The possibility exists for a major European war in the early 30s, especially if the alliances differ from OTL.

 

[unprincipled peter]

Its unclear what the alliance system would be by 1740. Really you need to work out how the War of the Polish Succession plays out. That would be completely different from OTL and set the stage for a conflict over the Austrian Succession. With Austria and Spain allied and Carlos betrothed to Maria Theresa fighting would be different in Italy. Probably France still avoids fighting in the Netherlands and still allies with Savoy. The Netherlands and Britain could still remain neutral as IOTL. Although Hanover perhaps joins Bavaria in a more pro-French position given a different alliance system or at least remains neutral depriving the Imperial army of troops. But any troops Austria may have to divert from Italy to Germany would be made up for with Spanish assistance in Italy since Spain could ally with Austria with the goal of retaking Sardinia.

Spanish help probably allows Austria to hold onto Milan in the face of Franco-Savoyard attack. Perhaps there are instead rival naval expeditions, France against Austrian Presidi or Naples and Spain against Savoyard Sardinia. Its possible the war ends with the status quo ante in Italy. That would certainly help the Austrians going into a succession war.

Although it seems to make it less likely that Carlos would be considered for election to succeed Charles VI if more of the German princes are in a pro-French camp. So Charles Albert of Bavaria seems even more likely to be elected Emperor. So the problem is that Austria may be left with no allies in Germany if Prussia turns then against them when Maria Theresa dies. And without British subsidies I don't know how they'd fare in a succession war even with a stronger position in Italy and Spanish aid. Especially if Britain becomes involved in a conflict on the opposing side and actively aids Charles Albert and/or Prussia.

France's policy in this era was to encourage proxies to fight for them. During the WoPS, they found a very willing partner in Spain, whose Queen was eager to get her sons on thrones. France promised Milan to both Spain and Savoy, leading Savoy to actively foil efforts to take Milan (fearing the spoils would go to Spain). Changing the alliances means France has to up their own contribution. IF France puts a little more effort into the war, France/Savoy may succeed. The whole war in Italy is totally different. Spain may not get involved at all. WoPS may bypass Italy, leaving Naples remaining Austrian, and Carlos is sitting in Parma, at least until he solidifies his reign, then he leaves it with a Regent while he hangs out in Austria.

(edit: France may also choose to minimize the war, having lost a major partner. WoPS may not amount to much at all)

As major wars go, the WoPS was relatively limited. The effects were subtly substantial, though. Would not take much for an alternative conflict to make big changes to the world stage.