Maximilian gets another brilliant victory but sadly Leopold's politics come into play to once again alienate him in some way, combine that with what happened in Transylvania and we'll probably see some sort of hostile situation developing here.
The Spanish Heir (What if Carlos II had a son?)
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So Zimmermann had Radvanszky's fate ? Radvanszky was still executed ?
Max Emanuel countermanded the Emperor's orders. Then, he didn't follow up on his victory at Nis despite the view of his underlings. While we know it was the best course of action, his enemies will point out to the Emperor that if he had followed through, the ottoman position in the Balkans could have collapsed.
Come 1690, Leopold would be in a much more dire position along the Rhine. Even if the Spanish enter the war in 1690, it won't be from the very beginning of the year and when the Allies are drawing their plans in the 1689/90 winter, they won't take into account the Spanish Army in their calculations. Without Spain there is no chance to have an Italian Front. There goes the Spanish Army of Milan that had a nominal strength of at least 13,000 infantry, although in OTL 1690 around 10,000 were sent to Piedmont. Without the Spanish, Victor Amadeus is out of the picture as well, along with his (1690) 7,250 infantry and 1,420 cavalry (source: War Diplomacy and the Rise of Savoy). So, more than 18,000 men are out of the Allied OOB in Italy that would tie down a whole french army. Now Louis needs only to just keep a strong garrison at Pinerolo and Casale. It is also quite possible that his bullying against Victor Amadeus might actually work.
At the same time, the french army covering Catalonia could be expected to be quite small. Villahermosa's 4,000 infantry and 2,000 cavalry are out of the picture.
Now the main OTL theater, that of the Spanish Netherlands. According to the "Spanish Armies in the War of the League of Augsburg" Gastañaga in 1690 had 14,923 infantry and 5,991 cavalry and dragoons. Liege provided another 8,000 men and the British had sent a bit more than 6,000 men (of nominal strength of 10,000). That's 35,000 fewer men in the Allied OOB.
The Allies start 1690 with 59,000 fewer men than in OTL.
The Emperor cannot afford to keep any significant army in the Balkans. The French have numerical superiority, hold Mainz and Bonn, threaten Koblenz and could recover Cologne. He will have to strip Max Emanuel of his army and basically give up most of the Max Emanuel's conquests.
Indeed, if you stop to think about it, Austria/HRE is in a pretty dire situation at the moment, especially as France only gets more and more powerful as they bring in more reservists to bring their numerical superiority to the table, it's a matter of time before France can secure the Rhine and use it to both invade the Netherlands as well as invading the HRE proper. Of course this all assuming Spain won't join in and that things continue to go as well as they are in Scotland for James, for now France are in a lucky wave that may not last forever and they need a big breakthrough in order to really feel safe in the case of Spain entering the war or Britain fully falling to William.
Really hoping the best for max, don't want all his efforts be for nothing
Ball is on Leopold's court now, either way his decisions will have massive shockwaves for the course of the war and his empire.
I personally hope he fumbles it because I'm France's strongest soldier and want them to win the war.
Great update as always. And this is exactly the strategy the Austrians need to be successful now that they have to divert resources to the west. Slow and steady wins the race. Though I do worry about Munkacs holding out, if Thokoly can somehow swing around and invade north east Hungary and relieve the siege that would pose serious danger to the Austrians.
I personally am hoping for an Allied victory in Germany and a Williamite defeat in Britain, as well as Leopold soft-pedalling his implementation of the direct Austrian rule of Hungary and the Balkans so as to grow imperial loyalty and not cause a revolt as soon as his back is turned. Also, Caraffa cannot die soon enough, what a vile man, though decent general.
The problem with that is Leopold actually very much wanting to crush any sort of Transylvaniann independence from Vienna and him giving honors to Caraffa is proof that he's not only approving but also very satisfied with the results and maybe even the methods, the dude has won big in the east and he sees no reason to ever cede ground to what he sees as unreliable nobility. Although I think that's the intention of the author where the Austrians are riding high on victory in the east but events in the West as well as their own actions towards the now embittered Transylvanians will reverse them in some way.
While it's true that the emperor would like to withdraw the army from the balkans, Max’s more limited campaign probably preserved enough troops and took a limited enough area that it can be appropriately guarded and garrisoned even if the field army is withdrawn. Of course garrisons without reinforcements are just a delay vs an ottoman field army, but it should give some more time before the area can be retaken, especially as the ottomans appear too sclerotic to send an army at the moment.
I am under the impression that the problem will be wider. If the book "German Armies: War and German Society, 1648-1806" is to be believed, after the beginning of the Nine Years War, the Imperial Army in the east was reduced to 24,000 men. The vast majority of them are needed at the Rhine. Would Max Emanuel stay in the east, if he is to command a tiny army, perhaps just slightly larger than his own 8,000 Bavarians? Then even with more limited offensives, the Imperials need to garrison a lot of fortresses in Serbia and Bosnia. If they try to hold everything south of Belgrade, they risk defeat in detail.
But here is why the problem is deeper. Max Emanuel won't stay east. At the same time, he has a worse relationship with Leopold compared to OTL. I very much doubt that the Emperor will make him commander of all imperial forces in the french front, especially since Max was making his own policy in the last campaign. Leopold needs Ludwig Wilhelm in the west. So here is the problem: Caraffa becomes the most probable choice for command in the east. After all, he was a good enforcer of imperial will in the past, in contrast to Max Emanuel and even Charles. Caraffa in command is a recipe for disaster. Imre Thököly will return next year, with an ottoman army on his back. In OTL he defeated the Imperials at Zernest and was elected Prince of Transylvania. Eventually he was forced to abandon Transylvania by Ludwig Wilhelm. Thököly will receive a lot more support from Transylvania, Upper Hungary (his wife has not given up yet) and most likely former-ottoman Hungary as well. Instead of the OTL nuisance, Leopold may face a popular revolt as big as Rákóczi's.
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All of this when France will be having more men to spare and are in a prime position to concentrate their forces into the Rhine and threaten the HRE itself as well as the Netherlands which worsens the British situation as the Dutch would essentially leave William at his own(at best) or demand him and everything Dutch he brought to return ASAP to defend them, all the while the Spanish will be busy with Catalonia and are very much not entering the war.
Thank you for giving some more historical context, as I'm not extremely familiar with this time period. In general I do agree with you conclusion - Leopold can't afford an army in the east, and will recall the troops. Max will not stay there to be a glorified Castellan and he is smart enough to know that his own 8000 bavarians are not enough to seriously oppose an ottoman attack, so he will have to return to the empire.
The question is what happens next. Leopold has little interest of giving him any authority, but he will desperately need Max's experienced and relatively large army to hold the Rhine against an overwhelming French force. How that plays out is anyone's guess.
Your comments about Hungary are also quite interesting- Leopold seems intent on stomping down on the Hungarians but with the French breathing down his neck he will lack the resources to do so, likely provoking a revolt. Max would be the perfect choice to put it down, but Leopold will probably do the opposite, exacerbating the situation. It's a hard situation, and I'm not sure how the Empire gets out of it. They desperately need full Spanish, British, and Dutch support. However with the revolt in Catalonia and the the civil war in Great Britain the prospects of both are unlikely in the short term. Great Britain is probably out of it in the medium term as well, as the civil war there seems to be quite dire for William (unless James completely messed up again which is always possible). The Dutch are also trapped in an awkward situation due to William's ambition. Really the French are going to be laughing all the way home to the bank.
One would hope
The question is whether the Imperials can hold on these territories. Right now the Ottomans are a year and half removed from the collapse of their central government. In 1690, they'll be two and half years removed and if the the Ottomans have proved anything, it's their resiliency. Even if they have kept on losing, they have maintained the ability to continue to lose. Others would have just completely lost by this point, but the Ottomans have bounced back again and again. By 1690, they should have been given enough time to bounce back properly and bring up enough forces from the east to pose a serious threat to Max. Whether Max can hold on or not is in definite question.
Leopold's suspicious allude to everyone. No one is removed from them. For now, he can't take any serious action against Max, realistically. He can rail against Max all he wants, but he can't punish him meaningfully for any transgression. If Leopold and Max definitively break then the east is lost.
Leopold's politics haven't come into play quite yet. Leopold's reactions to the east will form part of a later chapter. Honestly, the next chapter has gotten too long and I'm trying to figure out to split it. But I imagine that Leopold's reactions to both west and east probably make more sense in the same chapter rather than holding on to Leopold's reactions and putting them as the introduction to the next fully eastern chapter. So you'll most likely see Leopold's reactions in one of the next two chapters.
Transylvania is interesting, because the Transylvanians can't be happy. But on their own they would never rebel. They're too weak. Meanwhile, Wallachia hasn't been alienated yet, but they also still retain freedom of range. So there's a question on if Max's diplomacy can keep Wallachia Imperial-leaning or if Turkey can get Wallachia to join them in attacking Transylvania.
The listedd Eperjes nobility are all dead yes.
Veterani and Caprara for sure would bring it up with the Emperor. Veterani because he's just an aggressive general and he doesn't like Max holding him back. Caprara because he thinks he thinks he should be in command. Caraffa actually is better military subordinate of the three despite his "opinion" of Hungarians. But then Marco d'Aviano will also complain because he wants to go to Constantinople. So the Emperor will certainly plenty of opinions to snatch up if he wants to rail against Max.
To be clear about Italy and Savoy, Savoy and France didn't engage in warfare into well into year even if the tensions began before that. Savoy definitely relied on Spain to have the confidence to join the war and until Spain makes itself a member of the Grand Alliance, Savoy will be very hesitant to join the Grand Alliance. However, the war toward war didn't originate in Spain but rather in Vienna. In OTL, the Emperor gave Savoy a title diploma. Which realistically was meant to raise funds for Austria and to bring Savoy a little closer. It made the French very suspicious though and accelerated Savoy having to make a real decision. Ultimately Savoy chose the Grand Alliance, but as you point out, they did because Spain was right there to support them with the Army of Milan. They also used Spanish diplomats to carry out their talks with William III. That certainly won't happen in TTL. So if Savoy joins the Grand Alliance it would have to be more so through direct Spanish talksthan through a Spanish facilitation of English talks. If that happens then Savoy will be part of a Spanish-Savoyard bloc rather than just one of William III's allies. Given the two Orlean consorts it makes even more sense.
The French army at Catalonia probably doesn't see too much change. It was diminished somewhat to feed Germany already. But beyond that, unless there's a certain Franco-Spanish settlement then France has to keep an army there just in case. Also, it could be used to encourage the Catalans in their revolt.
Those numbers seem right to me. Just for clarity, Liege is officially neutral for now, so those 8,000 are currently out of it, unless something changes. The English are in Ireland instead. And the Spanish although in the Spanish Netherlands are currently at peace.
The thing about the east vs west, is that Leopold doesn't have much to personally win out west. In the east he has plenty to win and plenty he wants to win. Certainly, Leopold felt an obligation to try to contend France and he still does. But the current restrictions on the Grand Alliance might end up damning Germany more than the east. Or Leopold might try to thread the needle and damn both.
Currently, on its own, Munkacs isn't a threat because there's no allied army around them. But your exactly right, if Thokoly comes back, Munkacs is a great headquarters to go back into Slovakia. But even bigger, his family is free. He's under no restrictions from going all out. I think part of what you're seeing with Max ignoring Munkacs is him playing nice with the enemy and keeping lines of communication open. In OTL during the lead up to Blenheim he still had regular communications with Ludwig of Baden on both a personal and geopolitical level. Max undervaluing Munkacs is definitely part of the same thought process. Right now Munkacs isn't a threat, Timisoara certainly is, but with Transylvania and Belgrade you seem to have contained Timisoara. And by keeping Munkas alive, Max can talk to Thokoly's wife and then to Thokoly if he has any need to. But if Transylvania falls or Wallachia turns then Max has practically set up Thokoly to run through eastern Hungary.
Out of Caraffa, Caprara, and Veterani, Caraffa is probably the best of the three. Caprara is far too militantly stubborn and I wouldn't trust Veterani to know when to fall back. Which makes all the more interesting that Caraffa is most "vile" as you put it. It's very human I guess for them all to be flawed.
"End" is not a word that'll apply for some time. But we'll return there in 3 or 4 chapters (looking at the outline). I think the outline is currently Ireland then England then Scotland. We might drag in the British Isles because some of those chapters are half outside of the Isles and half on. Like half in France and half in the Isles or half in [that would be a spoiler] and half in the Isles. I might move up the half French chapter now that I think about it. It might make more sense timing wise.
Max has a subsidy contract so he is in fact obligated to stay east for the next few years even if it's only as "Castellan" (which I really like as term in this context). But you two are also so accurate that Max has no interest in being the Castellan. He wants to be the hero. If Leopold strips his army to the bone and makes Max just Castellan then Max essentially got scammed. He took the eastern command because he wanted a true command. But if he's just playing garrison commander while having to cede ground to the Turks, there's no glory. There's not even respect. He'd just be the one who is attaching his name to the withdrawals, which is the opposite of what he wants.
Now as Pilgrim points out, Leopold could just have Max take that contract west if Leopold gave Max command of the west. But Leopold doesn't want to do that, because Max can actually play toward more of his interests then just vainglory in the west. In the east, Max isn't gaining land. He's not even gaining some of the other eastern commanders like Ludwig did. In the west though, entirely different situation. Max could retake Palatinate and then say, "hey, I'm the true Wittelsbach, I want to keep it". Or maybe Max reconquers Luxembourg and wants to keep it because of his wife. Compensation for giving up his claims? Max has things he can fight for in the west, which has to scare Leopold. Also, Max being the hero in the west versus the hero in the east can define him as the true patriot of Germany. Joseph has yet to be elected as King of the Romans and if Max is winning those victories, maybe he takes a run at it. And you would think it should be out of the question, but Max has his vote. Technically, he could have Cologne's vote too. Saxony might swing his way because Saxony is no friend of the Emperor. That's could be 3 and then he needs 1 more to tie the vote. Even if Max only ties the vote, it'd be a complete humiliation for Leopold.
But overall, yeah the allies are in such an incredibly awkward position because of Spain's recalcitrant attachment to James II, great uncle of Prince Luis Carlos of Asturias.
You could also say it is because of William's overweening pride and treacherous attack on his own father-in-law, who he was allied with.
Let's say that in 1690 Dundee and the Highlanders are crushed. Boyne goes according to OTL and James flees. The Irish retreat behind the Shannon and are finished in 1691. In the "Country Divided? English Politics and the Nine Years War", there was no unanimity in England after the Glorious Revolution. From one side there were the supporters of William that wanted an active commitment in the Continent and there were the navalists who promoted a naval strategy that emphasized trade war and home defence. Such politicians were Halifax, Thomas Clarges, Edward Seymour, William Garroway, Christopher Musgrave among others.
Even if the current troubles end soon, the British Isles have faced more upheaval and bloodshed than in OTL, including a more destructive Monmouth Rebellion. I think the isolationists and the navalists will be more numerous and the ones promoting a Continental commitment with a standing army rather fewer.
That's a very accurate assessment. Somehow it reminds me of Emperor Joseph during the WoSS. He would prioritize Italy over the main front in the Spanish Netherlands, because he wanted to gain Milan and Naples. Dynastic interests prevailed. When it comes to resource allocation in the WoSS I have a very nice graph taken from " The Impact of the Rákóczi Rebellion on Habsburg Strategy: Incentives and Opportunity Costs" by Lothar Höbelt:
It demonstrates Habsburg priorities and the impact of a major hungarian revolt.
EDIT: A Max Emanuel that has designs over Luxemburg should indeed terrify Leopold. Then the enmity of Spain is ensured. And as you said, Spain may very well attract Savoy to form its own bloc, independent of both France and the Grand Alliance. And a Max in control of Palatinate is something Leopold cannot tolerate under any circumstances. It seems that the greater successes of Max Emanuel and his character have made his contemporaries consider him as even more ambitious than his OTL counterpart.
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