Sir John Valentine Carden Survives. Part 2.

[vizzer]

Wooden huts if there’s timber from nearby forests or it can be shipped from further south. Stoves etc. also

Not great but survivable. Could also transfer some Norwegians to other towns if need be.

One thing Norway doesn't have is a shortage of timber.
IIRC one other thing the German occupation stopped was the export of timber props for mines to the UK. I think they had to import from Canada instead which obviously takes more shipping.

 

[Finbarr the Fair]

One thing Norway doesn't have is a shortage of timber.

I thought that but wasn’t sure if Narvik was above the northern limit for tree growth. Anyway, timber barracks a solution requiring hard work but that’s what soldiers are good for.

IIRC one other thing the German occupation stopped was the export of timber props for mines to the UK. I think they had to import from Canada instead which obviously takes more shipping.

Yes, that figures.

 

[MattII]

Interesting idea. Think Sardinia is a leap too far without Sicily though.

Except in my idea it would be the prelude to Sicily. An island in the middle of nowhere with no strategic value, except that it's not in the middle of nowhere, because it's not far to the south of Corsica, which is part of Metropolitan France, and thus, such a move might prompt the Germans to instigate Fall Blau, which would leave Weygand free to join the Allies. And all without putting a soldier in French territory.

 

[kelgar04]

TBH given the British are already picking away at Italy in the med and already taken two islands close to Sicily (Lampione and Pantelleria) one of which wasn’t taken OTL till Husky they are already laying the ground for possible operations against Sicily as well as securing sea lanes.

Also I think there is a military airfield on the Island of Pantelleria but not 100% on this.

 

[Mark1878]

Except in my idea it would be the prelude to Sicily. An island in the middle of nowhere with no strategic value, except that it's not in the middle of nowhere, because it's not far to the south of Corsica, which is part of Metropolitan France, and thus, such a move might prompt the Germans to instigate Fall Blau, which would leave Weygand free to join the Allies. And all without putting a soldier in French territory.

Problem is with Corsica and Sciliy in Axis hands they can get land based aircraft over the battle. Where are Allied planes flying from?

Also Axis subs would work here Allied ASW is difficult again due to Axis aircraft.

 

[MattII]

TBH given the British are already picking away at Italy in the med and already taken two islands close to Sicily (Lampione and Pantelleria) one of which wasn’t taken OTL till Husky they are already laying the ground for possible operations against Sicily as well as securing sea lanes.

Also I think there is a military airfield on the Island of Pantelleria but not 100% on this.

Pantelleria is ~85 km^2, only slightly larger than Gozo (~67 km^2), and substantially smaller than the island of Malta (~246 km^2), so there's no way it's going to be able to sustain high-tempo operations for long, or in any real numbers.

Problem is with Corsica and Sciliy in Axis hands they can get land based aircraft over the battle. Where are Allied planes flying from?

Also Axis subs would work here Allied ASW is difficult again due to Axis aircraft.

I was thinking an out-of-the-blue attack, like Torch was, so they have as little chance as possible to reinforce the area before the Allies already have a substantial hold.

 

[Mark1878]

I was thinking an out-of-the-blue attack, like Torch was, so they have as little chance as possible to reinforce the area before the Allies already have a substantial hold.

Where do the Allied planes fly from?

Sicily already has reasonable Axis air power.

Also OTL the Allies would not make an invasion which was not under air cover, thus only landing in Naples and not further up Italy. So they know air power matters.

 

[kelgar04]

Pantelleria is ~85 km^2, only slightly larger than Gozo (~67 km^2), and substantially smaller than the island of Malta (~246 km^2), so there's no way it's going to be able to sustain high-tempo operations for long, or in any real numbers.

Not think of it for high tempo operations anything will have to be launched from Libya but taking the island makes it easier to run anti submarine operations

 

[MattII]

Where do the Allied planes fly from?

Sicily already has reasonable Axis air power.

Also OTL the Allies would not make an invasion which was not under air cover, thus only landing in Naples and not further up Italy. So they know air power matters.

What air assets are currently in Sardinia?

Not think of it for high tempo operations anything will have to be launched from Libya but taking the island makes it easier to run anti submarine operations

The closest point between Libya and Sicily is ~275 miles. Bombers can do it, sure, but fighters? Those would have to come from airfields closer, which means Malta and Pantelleria, or Tunisia. Except French North Africa isn't yet a place they can launch from.

 

[Finbarr the Fair]

Except in my idea it would be the prelude to Sicily. An island in the middle of nowhere with no strategic value, except that it's not in the middle of nowhere, because it's not far to the south of Corsica, which is part of Metropolitan France, and thus, such a move might prompt the Germans to instigate Fall Blau, which would leave Weygand free to join the Allies. And all without putting a soldier in French territory.

What @Mark1878 said.

Sicily first, then Sardinia to threaten Corsica and whole coastline from the Pyrenees to the toe of Italy.

 

[ArtosStark]

Where do the Allied planes fly from?

Torch wasn’t supported by land based air. At least not in any significant way. The bulk of air assets were carried on carriers (mostly escort carriers). Sardinia before Sicily has been debated before on this site. And though no firm consensus was reached, the lack of land based air was not a deciding weakness in the concept. Air assets in Sicily cannot maintain a strong umbrella over Sardinia in either case. The air battle would be between the assets the Allies bring with them and the assets based on Sardinia (which were minimal IIRC).

 

[Mark1878]

Torch wasn’t supported by land based air. At least not in any significant way. The bulk of air assets were carried on carriers (mostly escort carriers). Sardinia before Sicily has been debated before on this site. And though no firm consensus was reached, the lack of land based air was not a deciding weakness in the concept. Air assets in Sicily cannot maintain a strong umbrella over Sardinia in either case. The air battle would be between the assets the Allies bring with them and the assets based on Sardinia (which were minimal IIRC).

Yes but touch landings were not opposed by Germans and Italians

 

[MattII]

Yes but touch landings were not opposed by Germans and Italians

What forces do the Axis have in Sardinia?

 

[JWilly48519]

Just looking for the population of Narvik it's currently 15k & was around 5k before WW2. So taking your 1:8 ratio would be looking at 40k German troops & I just wonder where they'd put them all as you don't want to live under canvas during a Norwegian winter.

Two comments: first, the 1:8 ratio was the other way around. The Norwegian population was about 2.5 million; the German garrison was about 300,000 for most of the war. So per your analysis, the German garrison would have been more like 630...a weak battalion.

But second, the 1:8 ratio I mentioned was observational, just comparing national totals...not, AFAIK, some sort of local-garrison-numbers assignment metric.

We know from historical commentary that the Germans assigned the Norway garrison primarily to the locales where they thought the Allies might want to attack...that is, primarily Narvik because of the overriding importance to the Germany military economy of iron ore from the northern Swedish mines during the frozen-Gulf-of-Bothnia months, plus the other ports to the north even though unlike Narvik they mostly were not ice-free during the winter months, plus all the airfields along the Norwegian coast.

Much of the ~ 2.5 million WWII Norwegian population lived in the southern urban areas, but the Germans didn't consider those areas to be particularly at risk of Allied military action so didn't heavily defend them, other than the harbors and airfields. Most of the defenses and corresponding garrisons were disproportionately to the north.

 

[Salamander]

One reason for the OTL invasion of mainland Italy was to threaten an invasion of the Axis held Balkan nations. The proximity of Allied air power and major ports in southern Italy, combined with the activities of Tito's partisans and Churchill's well-known obsession with the Balkans being "Europe's soft underbelly", caused Germany to re-direct significant ground and air units to the region to protect that flank. Those units were desperately needed on the Ostfront and were rendered unavailable by the invasion. The threat of a possible invasion of Norway was also responsible for considerable German forces to be isolated there until the end of the war.

 

[diestormlie]

Much of the ~ 2.5 million WWII Norwegian population lived in the southern urban areas, but the Germans didn't consider those areas to be particularly at risk of Allied military action so didn't heavily defend them, other than the harbors and airfields. Most of the defenses and corresponding garrisons were disproportionately to the north.

Clearly, then, the Allies have the opportunity to do the funniest invasion: Land further south (say, IDK, Mo i rana, a quick google maps suggests that Norway is fairly 'thin' at that point) as so to cut off the more northerly German garrisons.

Now, I am assuming that most of the German garrisons in Norway aren't particularly motorised/mechanised or otherwise mobile, because, well, the Germans did that sort of thing a lot.

It's probably not actually practical. But it would be funny.

 

[pjmidd]

Clearly, then, the Allies have the opportunity to do the funniest invasion: Land further south (say, IDK, Mo i rana, a quick google maps suggests that Norway is fairly 'thin' at that point) as so to cut off the more northerly German garrisons.

Now, I am assuming that most of the German garrisons in Norway aren't particularly motorised/mechanised or otherwise mobile, because, well, the Germans did that sort of thing a lot.

It's probably not actually practical. But it would be funny.

Not mechanised and pretty static is to put it mildly post Barbarossa. Might be a lot of Germans but precious few of the Heer, at first, are good for more than garrison troops. This is due to the majority of the good ones having moved to Finland to fight the Soviets and so would need to redeploy back. Attacking Norway therefore will help the Soviets on land as well as with supply routes.

 

[Sqdn19]

The fact the Army is in North Africa does mean that Sicily is much closer. It would also open the Med for much needed traffic.
I do wonder if we’re looking at in with hindsight; was it plainly known that all one had to do was “kick in the door, and the entire rotten edifice (of Mussolini’s regime) would collapse”? Also, might they not go neutral following the fall of Sicily, and Sardegna? (Possibly Corsica too?) Island hopping might be an ideal starter for US forces.

Re the Italian Navy. I could be mistaken, but I thought the Home Fleet’s bottling up the Kriegsmarine was larger than the Med fleet, suggesting the Sea Lords viewed the former as the more dangerous threat.

Finally, I believe @Cryhavoc101 noted Italy offered Bomber Command a base. Might it not be argued Corsica and Sardegna are closer to industry than Salerno? And is Bomber Command & the USAAF sufficiently capable to generate the same economic damage as cutting and out-bidding Swedish Iron Ore? Especially if SOE can be based in the Aegean ensuring the Turkish alloy export could be sabotaged and the Germans must increasingly rely on lower quality steel.

Oh, and Swedish steel & Norwegian timber means more can be kept in the Sterling Area.

 

[jlckansas]

Take Sicily first, then you can get Sardinia. Depending on what happens after that you go for Mainland Italy, Corsica, or more permanent supply runs to Tito.

 

[Sqdn19]

Take Sicily first, then you can get Sardinia. Depending on what happens after that you go for Mainland Italy, Corsica, or more permanent supply runs to Tito.

I’d advise so also. I don’t think anyone would disagree with a “Sicily First” doctrine.

Tito might be easier after Greece, or at least the Ionian Islands and Corfu. Definitely the most friendly territory to land in. Greece offers the “advantage” that someone in Whitehall may know Boris & Carol might want to switch to the side of someone not called Adolf or Joseph. But that depends on planning ahead to the Cold War.