Of lost monkeys and broken vehicles

[Duke of Orlando]

Did Italy manage to keep Libya?

I believe we discussed this briefly and we decided that with the Italians already keeping the Julian March (or most of it, the specific are unclear) Italy had to lose basically everything else as they are still on the losing side of the war. I’ve made a case for maybe keeping Kotor as an exclave but I doubt the Yugoslavians go for that even though it was my idea. In a similar vein to that I could maybe see a case being made for an Italian Benghazi exclave or maybe a small piece of Cyrenaica if the Wallies are feeling particularly magnanimous but I doubt it. It doesn’t do them any good but it does probably alienate the new government of Libya from the start.

In this scenario, I think that for Abdullah, Jerusalem would be so or more importantly both symbolically and militarily, than OTL and considering that both would have more and better armed forces better armed and with more war veterans/experienced/competent NCOs and officers than OTL... I'd suppose that the battle/s for Jerusalem, would be likely to be longer and more hard-fought than OTL...

I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if the Israelis were able to leverage their superior numbers to encircle the city and cut off the legion. Having Lebanon be friendly or neutral is honestly a very big change and helps the Israelis immensely

Both the creation and maintenance of a nuclear weapon stockpile are an immense expense for any country, let alone one as war-torn as Greece. Between decades of on and off war, the integration of new territories, reconstruction of destroyed infrastructure and demobilization of the economy, I don't see where the state would find the money for a nuclear weapons program. It's not even like Greece could fend off the Soviets if the Soviets decided to invade, bomb or no bomb. A far better option is to just remain pro-west and be a founding member of alt-NATO to ensure you remain under the nuclear umbrella of the US-UK-France.

I'm not saying it couldn't happen, states make wasteful decisions with their national budgets all of the time. It just seems to me like a colossal waste of money when their are far more pressing matters at hand.

Yet another reason Greece could remain nuke free. Greece may be one of the first countries to share Nukes with the U.S. or others in NATO, but I don’t think they develop them on their own . Particularly if they’re offered a carrot or two.

 

[Lascaris]

Both the creation and maintenance of a nuclear weapon stockpile are an immense expense for any country, let alone one as war-torn as Greece. Between decades of on and off war, the integration of new territories, reconstruction of destroyed infrastructure and demobilization of the economy, I don't see where the state would find the money for a nuclear weapons program. It's not even like Greece could fend off the Soviets if the Soviets decided to invade, bomb or no bomb. A far better option is to just remain pro-west and be a founding member of alt-NATO to ensure you remain under the nuclear umbrella of the US-UK-France.

I'm not saying it couldn't happen, states make wasteful decisions with their national budgets all of the time. It just seems to me like a colossal waste of money when their are far more pressing matters at hand.

For comparisons shake Israel developed nuclear weapons between 1957 and 1967. It's GDP in 1967 was $4.03 billion. While we have no idea how much the program cost we know the Dimona reactor had cost $80 million so the entire program likely cost less than half a billion. By comparison OTL Greece had a GDP of $9.28 billion more than twice that of Israel.

So economic constraints if the political will and access to technology (hi France!) are there shouldn't be much of a showstopper by the late 1960s and this does not apply just to Greece.

 

[GrimmJow007]

For comparisons shake Israel developed nuclear weapons between 1957 and 1967. It's GDP in 1967 was $4.03 billion. While we have no idea how much the program cost we know the Dimona reactor had cost $80 million so the entire program likely cost less than half a billion. By comparison OTL Greece had a GDP of $9.28 billion more than twice that of Israel.

So economic constraints if the political will and access to technology (hi France!) are there shouldn't be much of a showstopper by the late 1960s and this does not apply just to Greece.

Thanksgiving in Greece will have stuffed Turkey.

 

[Lewndan]

For comparisons shake Israel developed nuclear weapons between 1957 and 1967. It's GDP in 1967 was $4.03 billion. While we have no idea how much the program cost we know the Dimona reactor had cost $80 million so the entire program likely cost less than half a billion. By comparison OTL Greece had a GDP of $9.28 billion more than twice that of Israel.

So economic constraints if the political will and access to technology (hi France!) are there shouldn't be much of a showstopper by the late 1960s and this does not apply just to Greece.

Precisely my thoughts on the matter. If i may add, Israel had also to fare with its own Independence War of 1948, which makes its becoming nuclear power even more difficult!

 

[GrimmJow007]

Precisely my thoughts on the matter. If i may add, Israel had also to fare with its own Independence War of 1948, which makes its becoming nuclear power even more difficult!

Being surrounded by hostile nations certainly does wonders for the advancement of military technology.

 

[Khan Doomy]

Besides that, how many have ended up married with Greeks after several years in Greece.


That's still about 2 to 3 decades into the future and dependent on politics a fair bit. But TTL Greece is liable to have a nominal GDP... 3 to 4 times higher than OTL hence investment on a civilian nuclear reactor program is rather more affordable.

National Technical University of Athens, experimental physics department presumidly just like OTL.

I think the obvious candidate TTL is Sweden given her OTL track record and now directly bordering Red Finland and having a territorial dispute with it. Now the next obvious questions is what side effects nuclear Sweden brings. Frex one of the reasons Switzerland decided against obtaining a nuclear arsenal was that Sweden had not. Then if you already have Sweden and Switzerland what happens with Italy which in OTL had very comprehensive plans including her own SLBMs and nuclear ballistic missile submarines? And one notes that pre De Gaulle has a joint nuclear weapons program with France... and West Germany?

If Greece goes for a nuclear program I would think the likely path would be similar to Israel (or India for that matter). Build a "research" reactor to produce and separate plutonium, the technology would likely be coming from France or Canada, go to France for something like Jericho missile, or work together with the Italians and their Alfa missile, for your deterrent not to be totally aircraft bound, build up from there....

I cannot see Greece going strategic nukes. It has such a conventional superiority over its local rivals it does not need it. But a tactical (really speaking Hiroshima bombs) program is possible and frankly more than enough to lock in security.

 

[Lascaris]

I cannot see Greece going strategic nukes. It has such a conventional superiority over its local rivals it does not need it. But a tactical (really speaking Hiroshima bombs) program is possible and frankly more than enough to lock in security.

Greece doesn't NEED a strategic arsenal in the first place. If you are postulating a nuclear Greece, it has gone nuclear to counter what?

 

[Xenophonte]

I cannot see Greece going strategic nukes. It has such a conventional superiority over its local rivals it does not need it. But a tactical (really speaking Hiroshima bombs) program is possible and frankly more than enough to lock in security.

Greece doesn't NEED a strategic arsenal in the first place. If you are postulating a nuclear Greece, it has gone nuclear to counter what?

Or alternatively, perhaps, ITTL, first trip of the US Nautilus (SSN 571) would be enough influence as for allow for the rise of TTL Greek Navy own H. Rickover...

 

[Quinkana]

Greece doesn't NEED a strategic arsenal in the first place. If you are postulating a nuclear Greece, it has gone nuclear to counter what?

Go the French route of 'I'd nuke anyone I need to to stop you'.

 

[Asriellian]

Go the French route of 'I'd nuke anyone I need to to stop you'.

I do love the French doctrine of "...and let that first nuke be a warning!"

 

[Duke of Orlando]

Greece doesn't NEED a strategic arsenal in the first place. If you are postulating a nuclear Greece, it has gone nuclear to counter what?

The only two reasonable answers I can think of to this is a nuclear armed Turkey or the Soviets put nukes in the straits, I don’t see the Soviets doing that as they benefit from a non nuclear Greece. And I don’t think Turkey does this because the Soviets will be pressuring them to remain Nuke free to keep the Greeks Nuke free. Especially since the Greeks could probably get nukes faster than them through their friendship with the French, so the Turks would gain very little for it besides upsetting a lot of their neighbors.

 

[Quinkana]

The only two reasonable answers I can think of to this is a nuclear armed Turkey or the Soviets put nukes in the straits, I don’t see the Soviets doing that as they benefit from a non nuclear Greece. And I don’t think Turkey does this because the Soviets will be pressuring them to remain Nuke free to keep the Greeks Nuke free. Especially since the Greeks could probably get nukes faster than them through their friendship with the French, so the Turks would gain very little for it besides upsetting a lot of their neighbors.

Or Greece develops it when the ME states that Greece is enemies with threatens them with the development of nukes, especially post fall of the USSR.

 

[Joseph890]

Or Greece develops it when the ME states that Greece is enemies with threatens them with the development of nukes, especially post fall of the USSR.

I actually think that this could be interesting. Is that greece becomes like Israel that they will launch Strikes against neighboring countries if they try to build nuclear weapons.

 

[DracoLazarus]

I do love the French doctrine of "...and let that first nuke be a warning!"

I usually describe it as the nuclear equivalent of a warning shot to the kneecap with a shotgun.

 

[Duke of Orlando]

Or Greece develops it when the ME states that Greece is enemies with threatens them with the development of nukes, especially post fall of the USSR.

By that point it might be easier to just rely on nuke sharing. I’m not sold on the Middle East going for nukes either honestly. Getting nukes sets off to many dominos in the region for everyone for it to be to popular an idea I think. I don’t even know if Israel tries to get Nukes if the 1948 war is significantly smaller. Like is the Arab League even a thing in this world? Maybe it still was formed but with the Hashemites playing a bigger role as an Arab unifier I could see other states not being the keenest to join. If the 1948 war is purely a Hashemite affair I could see Israel feeling much less threatened. Relations may not be particularly warm in the Mid East between Israel and the other Arab powers during and after the war obviously but it might not be the wasteland of OTL.

 

[Ramontxo]

I do love the French doctrine of "...and let that first nuke be a warning!"

That was to be an tactical nuke on any Varsovia Pact army approaching the Rhine.

 

[DracoLazarus]

That was to be an tactical nuke oon any Varsovia Pact army approaching the Rhine.

The way I head it was the first WP body of troops to cross the Rhine.

 

[Ramontxo]

The way I head it was the first WP body of troops to cross the Rhine.

I have not been able to find the reference. It was something like thirty minutes (the minimun time to deploy the Pluton tactical missile)

 

[Sphenodon]

But the Assyrians were a different number. Back in 1942 the Assyrians were outnumbering his army. Now the reverse was the case. With the Kurds out of the picture and thhe British neutral Abdullah increased the pressure on the Assyrians offering them autonomy if they would recognize Arabian sovereignity. Otherwise his army would solve the issue. After all Abdullah had no interest in losing more oil production to a group of upstart Christians...

Accept an offer of peace and autonomy from Iraq barely twenty years after Simele, or fight yet another outnumbered war and hope the Kurds don't jump in. Pretty dismal set of decisions really.

 

[Lascaris]

Ion Dragoumis has had an eventful life, as diplomat, guerilla, spymaster, writer and politician. Having resigned from the premiership back in 1944 he is leading the opposition. A hale 67 year old he shows no inclination of leaving the leadership of his National Radical Party anytime soon.

George Kafandaris, is back in government as vice-premier. Severe health problems do not allow him to take a more active role in government and politics in general but Venizelos old lieutenant is not the kind of man to give up just because he is dying.

Nikolaos Stratos, is at 73 is for the second time prime minister of Greece. No one denies the man's capabilities, still not many like him. His Conservative Reform party is closer to the Liberals but still part of the right still calling them anti-Venizelist 6 years and a world war after the death of Venizelos short of looks outdated...

Themistoklis Sofoulis, has finally retired from politics at age 84 after serving two terms as president of Greece.

Konstantinos Karamanlis was very successful minister of transport and then industry in the coalition governments that ruled Greece during the war. A National Radical in good standing with the party he followed them in the opposition in 1945.

Theodore Pangalos, has finally joined politics becoming minister of war in 1945. The field marshal is widely respected, immensely popular and a staunch Liberal...

George Papandreou, is back in government with the Democratic Agrarian party part of the new ruling coalition. His price for joining the coalition has been introducing in Greece proportional representation. This ensures the political future of the Democratic Agrarians. But they are not the only ones likely to gain from this...

George Pesmazoglou was replaced as Greek minister of finance, by Kyriakos Varvaressos. But he has succeeded Alexandros Koryzis as director of the National Bank of Greece. That the coalition accepted as director a leading National Radical says quite a lot about the esteem his abilities are held.

Sofoklis Venizelos, served as minister or war in the wartime coalition and is now minister od foreign affairs in the new government. With Kafandaris dying his is a natural candidate to succeed him in leadership of the Liberals. Of course the entry of Pangalos into politics has complicated things...

Nikos Zachariadis, remains the undisputed master of the Communist Party of Greece. The recent change in electoral law makes almost certain the entry of the party in parliament. Zachariadis is very optimistic about the prospects of the party in the coming elections. Perhaps too much so as he hopes the party could get over 20% in the polls.

Ismail Canbulat remains at the head of the Renewal party the former CUP. Given his vocal support of the war effort he's trying to lie low at the moment lest the new government decides he and his party make a convenient scapegoat.

Kazim Karabekir, has become the third prime minister of Turkey after Mustafa Kemal and Rejep Peker. To him has fallen the task of picking up the pieces after the Turkish defeat. Including saving Halk partisi and its hold on Turkish society. The official line party apologists have start sprouting is that everything was Peker's fault and Kemal would had never gone to war against the Allies in 1941. Or lost it is left unsaid...

Ismet Ismirli pasha, is again foreign minister of Turkey, having stepped back for his friend Karabekir to become prime minister. Cold calculation has of course played its role in stepping back for Karabekir. After all whoever will have to handle the aftermath of the defeat is not going to be particularly popular with the population...

Slobodan Jovanovic, is the royalist deputy prime minister in the provisional government of national unity of Yugoslavia. With the war over the government is fracturing by the day as tensions between the cummunists and non-communists keep growing. The two sides have tentatively agreed for elections to be held in November 4th. The "military issue" is yet to be resolved with the country having at the moment two separate armies and both sides wanting the post-war army to be dominated by its own people.

Italo Balbo, turned coat fast enough and successfully enough to escape the fall of fascism in Italy. Ηe remains minister of the air and Italian Africa in the government of national unity while he prepares his party for the coming elections.

Georges Mandel survived imprisonment and the Buchenwald concentration camp. Back in 1940 Charles De Gaulle was Mandel's protege and Churchill would had preferred him to lead Fighting France. But Mandel's lost his chance. Now Clemenceau's former right hand man is resigned to a role second to De Gaulle and is publicly supporting his former protege. Not all in the French political class have been so accommodating.

Juan Negrin finds himself in the odd position of being together in government with his former enemy in the first Spanish civil war Eduardo Ochoa. Negrin does recognise that things could had been worse. After all back in 1936 only chance put in the head of the Nationalist rebels a republican liberal.

Eduardo Lopez Ochoa found himself leading factions in two Spanish civil wars, first with the Nationalists against the Republicans, and then with the moderate Nationalists and his former Republican enemies against his former Falangist allies. He himself claims than in both wars he was trying to protect Spain from far left and far right extremism alike. The Spanish Centrists have closed ranks behind him giving some credence to his claims. After all fighting and defeating German backed fascists and then joining the Allies can get a lot of inconvenient things forgotten...

Dolores Ibárruri is secretary general of PCE, the Spanish Communist Party. The party has eked a bit over 11% in the recent elections, an impressive performance compared to the below 3% of the 1936 elections... and an entirely underwhelming one for a party hoping to rule Spain. La Pasionaria, has already proclaimed the communists will be found in the streets and the union protecting the republic and the common folk. Peacefully of course...

Abdolhossein Teymourtash became president of Iran following the failed Zahedi coup and the death of Reza Pahlavi in 1941, successfully navigating the country to victory. Now it remains to be seen if he will lead it to democracy as well and whether he cares to in the first place...

Wladyslaw Sikorski has led Poland in exile into eventual victory. Unfortunately from the point of view of both him and most of the exiled Poles this neither means Poland is truly free nor that it is a sould idea to return to the homeland. This leaves Sikorski and the Western Allied countries with a problem. What is to happen with the hundreds of thousands of exiled Poles or for that matter their families back in Poland?